I’m a geopolitical forecaster and strategic analyst focusing on the Middle East and North Africa over at Stratfor, where I’ve been employed since 2017. I began my geopolitical career here at this website, which started off as a generalist blog called Geopolitics Made Super. A fan following propelled my career forward, expanding my audience to professionals and eventually to Stratfor, where I’ve been employed since November 2017.
I spent five years living the Persian Gulf in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, where, in my previous career, I was a teacher. As an educator, I was part of the social contract of those countries: the bond between state and student is an intense one, and through the lens of education one can see the evolution and growth of future compulsions and constraints of nation-states. This intense look into the Gulf Co-operation Council social contract colors my analysis of the region and provides my baseline for further understanding of state-evolution in that part of the region.
As a MENA analyst, my particular focus are the geopolitical dynamics of Turkey, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and the GCC, with overlying American strategy throughout the region. My higher-level strategic work includes the U.S.-Iran standoff, the expansion of Russian power into the region, and the exploration of Chinese influence in the Middle East.
At Stratfor, I’ve made a series of calls that have either ended up being picked up by the mainstream media or confirmed by subsequent events.
I was highlighting Saudi nationalism long before most media picked up on it — and published on it in May 2018.
I was part of the analytical push for seeing the real geopolitical impact (and tragic murder) of Saudi journalist of Jamal Khashoggi, including the long-standing anti-Saudi Congressional sentiment still present.
I was highlighting the risk to labor reforms in the UAE long before the UAE began to backtrack on some of its promises to investors.
I helped lead the analysis that predicted an Iran-Israeli clash in May 2018 through Syria.
I spotted the cracking of the Southern Transitional Council truce with Yemeni President Mansor Hadi in January 2018.
I noted the changing geopolitical dynamics around Gaza that have left that burning humanitarian issue off the front pages.
I detailed the changing Israeli demographic structure that increasingly favors the political muscle of the ultra-Orthodox — a full year before election results would demonstrate their power.
And while I haven’t been right 100% of the time (and hell, I don’t really want to put a number of accuracy), I’ve spotted important trends well ahead of their time and informed the international conversation as best as I can. My passion remains filling in the gaps of public discourse, improving rational conversation around geopolitics, and reaching the citizens of the nations most able to impact the course of world events so they can make better decisions.