On April 30, CIDRAP published a handy, broad-based scenario guide for what the rest of 2020's pandemic might look. It broke the future into three scenarios: a "peaks and valleys" scenario, a "Spanish Flu 2 massive wave" scenario, and a "slow burn" scenario -- all of which still seem viable right now. I can't go … Continue reading A second COVID wave, a second national lockdown? Not so fast
It's the end of the decade, and what a decade it's been. For me, I went from a teacher in the United Arab Emirates to a geopolitical analyst at Stratfor, plus added some kids, moved a few cities (and countries), and had a marriage thrown in for good measure. (My marriage is on-going, thanks) For … Continue reading Nationalism is the geopolitical why of the 2020s
Step back from the day to day media coverage and tactical details of the Iran-U.S. confrontation. Ignore the tanker attackers and whether or not they were a false flag (they almost surely weren't), blow past the Rouhani statements and the Trump tweets, fret less about E3 press releases and Russian hot air about defending Iran. … Continue reading What victory looks like to the Americans — and to the Iranians
It had almost an immediate cost in cash. Worse, the Europeans expressed worry, the Turkish opposition screamed electoral theft, and the Americans - well, the Americans have yet to take a firm position, but don't be surprised when Washington suddenly discovers its democratic scruples when it serves U.S. interest. The decision by Turkey's electoral board, … Continue reading Why is Erdogan risking so much for Istanbul’s mayoralty?
Haaretz is emphatic: Jordanian King Abdullah II fired several senior officials over the past week following reports of a plot to destabilize the kingdom, including the general intelligence chief, the king’s adviser on policy and information and several other senior advisers. Citing a Kuwait newspaper, Al-Qabas, Haaretz describes a potential plot by the Hashemite Kingdom's intel … Continue reading Was there a coup attempt in Jordan?
Just really quickly wanted to plug my absolute honor to have written for Time Magazine's Top 100 influential people on Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed. Check it out!
It's nationalist vs. nationalist. On Tuesday, April 9, Israelis will go to the polls to decide the fate of indicted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. A towering figure in Israeli politics, wily Bibi is throwing everything and the kitchen sink towards staying in power - including by allying with the worst of the worst in Israel's … Continue reading Here’s what the hell is happening in Israel’s elections
Go back to 2015. In the politically placid Obama years, the trends seemed logical, forwarding-looking, and strategic. America was pivoting to Asia, for China's rise was clearly a much greater threat to U.S. power than whatever might happen in the Middle East. It was signing a nuclear deal with Iran, for to have balance in … Continue reading American identity is key to understanding U.S. geopolitics
We're rebranding. And we're getting back to basics.
Helsinki was, by virtually every American political measure, a disaster. Only the Trump base - the very people he need not convince - were unaffected. Their commitment to Trump is a fascinating phenomenon in and of itself, as is Trump's willingness to preach to this particular choir even at the expense of actual governance. But … Continue reading Despite Trump, America is still going to rival Russia