On April 30, CIDRAP published a handy, broad-based scenario guide for what the rest of 2020's pandemic might look. It broke the future into three scenarios: a "peaks and valleys" scenario, a "Spanish Flu 2 massive wave" scenario, and a "slow burn" scenario -- all of which still seem viable right now. I can't go … Continue reading A second COVID wave, a second national lockdown? Not so fast
It's the end of the decade, and what a decade it's been. For me, I went from a teacher in the United Arab Emirates to a geopolitical analyst at Stratfor, plus added some kids, moved a few cities (and countries), and had a marriage thrown in for good measure. (My marriage is on-going, thanks) For … Continue reading Nationalism is the geopolitical why of the 2020s
Step back from the day to day media coverage and tactical details of the Iran-U.S. confrontation. Ignore the tanker attackers and whether or not they were a false flag (they almost surely weren't), blow past the Rouhani statements and the Trump tweets, fret less about E3 press releases and Russian hot air about defending Iran. … Continue reading What victory looks like to the Americans — and to the Iranians
Just really quickly wanted to plug my absolute honor to have written for Time Magazine's Top 100 influential people on Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed. Check it out!
It's nationalist vs. nationalist. On Tuesday, April 9, Israelis will go to the polls to decide the fate of indicted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. A towering figure in Israeli politics, wily Bibi is throwing everything and the kitchen sink towards staying in power - including by allying with the worst of the worst in Israel's … Continue reading Here’s what the hell is happening in Israel’s elections
Go back to 2015. In the politically placid Obama years, the trends seemed logical, forwarding-looking, and strategic. America was pivoting to Asia, for China's rise was clearly a much greater threat to U.S. power than whatever might happen in the Middle East. It was signing a nuclear deal with Iran, for to have balance in … Continue reading American identity is key to understanding U.S. geopolitics
We're rebranding. And we're getting back to basics.
Catalonia and Kurdistan couldn't seem farther away. One is nestled in the peace and prosperity of Western Europe, the other swims in the chaos of a dissolving Middle East. Yet the two independence referendums of these would-be nation states are revealing. Both raise questions about the meaning of their regional orders and have provoked pushback … Continue reading The World Won’t Let Kurdistan Or Catalonia Come Quietly Onto The Map
Especially after the downing of a Syrian jet by the Americans. It's in The Sun, on talk radio, and of course whispered by the "underground" corners of the Internet. Passive monitoring of geopolitical movements have led far too many to conclude the next world war is right around the corner. It isn't. Not that it can't be, just that it … Continue reading Quit Talking About World War III
America is out of the environmental protection businesses; so says the haughty god-emperor Trump, whose word is apparently law. Too bad even god-emperors cannot change facts. Too bad, especially, for the billions who are almost certain to be disrupted, displaced, and decimated by the looming geopolitical effects of climate change. That basic truth is denied … Continue reading How Climate Change Will Be the Biggest Geopolitical Crisis of the 21st Century